marinersrevolution

Ichiro's Home Run

2008-07-30T05:01:00.000-07:00

The Reason Japanese the foot fast.

Ichiro's sharp fielding, skillful batting and speedy base running have helped us appreciate that there is more to baseball than just home runs.

Money Go

2007-10-08T18:03:00.000-07:00

It's very nice to go out with my dad who's keen on baseball.

Baseball secrets

2007-10-04T19:45:00.000-07:00

The baseball players may enjoyed as a child in japan.

Lehr and Guillen to join Bavasi's Legacy

2006-12-03T03:00:00.000-08:00

top: Spiezio, Aurilia, Reese, Lawton, Everett, Vina
bottom: Guillen, Lehr, Sele, Appier, Burba, Washburn

Jose Guillen has allegedly agreed to a five million dollar guaranteed contract along with three million extra available in incentives, and a nine million dollar club option next year. He is allegedly pending approval for a physical today to join his place in Bavasi’s legacy.

I watched video of Guillen’s swing this past year and saw no evidence of his stroke being altered by his injured elbow. Full extension was reached time after time as he pulled the ball, and that is a bad sign. Why is making contact a bad sign?

It could indicate Jose Guillen’s decline had more to do with his approach at the plate and pitch recognition rather than injury. I won't deny that hitting with a torn ligament in your elbow isn’t going to hinder your numbers to some extent, but he still was able to hit nine homeruns in 241 at bats with a torn ligament. If Jose is healthy, he will probably hit .265/.315/.440 and 15 homeruns, park adjusted to Safeco Field.

I would be willing to bet that $5 million dollars Bavasi is throwing at Guillen that Chris Snelling could hit .270/.380/.470 and 10 homeruns this year. Snelling will get on base more often and therefore be more productive. There’s always that potential for Chris to start pulling the ball like Raul does and you got yourself a boost in run production. With a 30 year-old veteran you might have better odds finding the missing $9 million Sasaki money Howard Lincoln hid from us rather than relying on a career year by Guillen.

Bavasi apologists will bow down and claim this is a good “roll of the dice” since only a one-year contract is involved and then proceed to walk off a cliff after Bavasi asks them too. I would counter that this decision will not improve the team at right field.

Going along with Bavasi’s love of using two players at DH, I would have preferred seeing Kevin Millar be inked to a deal. Millar signed for $2.75 million on a one-year deal with Baltimore. Then Bavasi could have traded Ben Broussard for a righty that can hit lefties to share the D.H. duties.

Frank Catalanotto is going to make $3.5 million in ’07, $4 million in ’08 and ’09 for Texas. Although Frank was a single digit homerun hitter the past two seasons, he’s a left-handed pull hitter. His power numbers would have increased at Safeco Field; he is safer durability wise and a non-distraction in the clubhouse. Jose now gets to join an elite group of bust free agent signings unless Guillen fails the physical. What are the odds of that happening to a Bavasi free agent visiting Seattle?

Help Wanted, Special Assistant to the G.M.

2006-11-30T03:00:00.000-08:00

Macha being recruited by Lincoln and Armstrong

I just read John Hickey’s latest Freddy Garcia article and nearly fell out of my chair laughing loudly at the following sentence.

"The Mariners have a standing offer to Ken Macha, the deposed manager of the A's, to serve as a senior advisor to Bavasi."

Incompetent G.M. Bill Bavasi would have three “Special Assistants to the G.M.” if Ken Macha takes the Mariners up on their offer. Bavasi already has John Boles and Dan Evans at his side. Not to mention V.P., Baseball Counsel & Associate General Counsel Bart Waldman, and V.P. Associate General Manager Lee Pelekoudas doing Bavasi’s homework every night. How much more help does Bavasi need?

As far as Macha goes as a manager, his strategy is sound. I like that he doesn’t waste outs, and doesn’t like the running game, but he lost his team when it counted the most and he lacks the strong leadership the M’s absolutely need.

I guess Lincoln and Armstrong liked Macha's leadership of the Athletics as they played like dead zombies against the Twins in front of a million fans. It's downright comical that a help wanted sign is being plastered on the Seattle-PI headlines after the biggest signing of the off-season has been $1.8 million dollars to Willie Broomstick.

Igawa not as good as some believe

"He isn't overpowering, his fastball was at 88 to 91 mph range. I heard he has thrown harder, but I didn't see it," said the scout, who saw Igawa pitch for the NPB All-Stars against the MLB All-Stars recently in Japan. "His breaking ball was inconsistent. David Wright hit a homer off a breaking ball I thought was going to go out of the (Osaka) dome. His best pitch is a change-up.

I am ecstatic the M’s either lost their bid to the Yankees, or didn't make one for Kei Igawa. Jim Street of MLB.com stated on 11-28-06,"The Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres and the New York Mets are also believed to have submitted offers for the lefty." No mention of the Mariners making an official bid. The anonymous MLB scout quoted above in the New York Post isn’t a big fan of Kei and neither was I. Despite what you might read somewhere else, Igawa isn’t going to be Noah Lowry. He will most likely resemble the ’06 version of J.C. Romero.

Pierre and Matthews sign contracts, then send "thank you" cards to Ichiro

2006-11-25T15:14:00.000-08:00

Gary Mathews Jr. makes a grab

There seems to be an unusual amount of "shock and awe" lately when it comes to the recent contracts signed by Juan Pierre and Gary Matthews, Jr. Very strange indeed. No, the signings aren't strange. Just the uproar.

This may be my first post on "The Rev", but I'm going to toot my own horn for a second. Why? Because I predicted this.

I predicted that Gary Matthews' agent would go into contract negotiations with two key pieces of information. One being a side-by-side comparison between Matthews and Ichiro's stats from last year, and the other being Ichiro's salary information. In my estimation, Matthews was in for a huge pay raise, considering that he outperformed Ichiro in just about every area offensively last year, and also played a more crucial defensive position. Of course, Matthews would never get the full 12.5 million that Ichiro stole last year, but he got close. Am I saying that Matthews deserves the money that he will be paid? No. But the market has been set with Ichiro's ridiculous contract.

Juan Pierre isn't as good as Ichiro, but he has a similar skillset. Lots of singles and steals, but not much else in terms of real production. Right now, the market for a leadoff hitter who can hit 150+ singles, 20+ doubles, 9+ triples, and steal 45+ bases is 12.5 million. Pierre did all of that and more, but didn't have the OBP or slugging numbers that Ichiro did. He did play a more crucial defensive position for most of the year though.

At this rate, Michael Young and others must be salivating at the prospect of entering the free agent market in upcoming years. Jimmy Rollins and Grady Sizemore must be kicking themselves. Their contracts are more sensible, and should be the ones that set the market for "that kind of player", but now they could be seen as being underpaid.

Beltre back to L.A.?

2006-11-25T03:00:00.000-08:00

Ken Gurnick's MLB.com article three days ago lightly mentions a possible Adrian Beltre scenario of being reunited in Los Angeles. It's a shame Gurnick didn't link his opinion with Colletti, but targeting Beltre really doesn't make sense with Betemit at third for them. The Dodgers GM Ned Colletti is looking for power after the loss of J.D. Drew, and now that Carlos Lee is off the market today, the Beltre rumors may heat up to a bonfire intensity once the Winter Meetings commence on December 4th.

"We chose to go in the same direction as last year," he said. "We'll turn our attention to pitching now. There's a hitter or two I have some interest in. We'll look for pitching for a while. It's something I'd like to get done without too much time going by. If we get enough pitching, we may add a bat down the road."-Dodgers GM Ned Colletti

While Boston outfielder Manny Ramirez is on the market again, a better fit would be a player who could also provide defense. Seattle third baseman Adrian Beltre, the ex-Dodger, comes to mind.-Ken Gurnick

I stated in the past that if Beltre did not pan out he would still be young enough to acquire value in return. Adrian has many analysts believing that he finally adjusted to American League pitching and is a new hitter now. I agree he has improved, but there are still questions surrounding the slugger. Sixteen of his homeruns this season were launched out of spacious Safeco Field, so the the Grand Canyon dimensions had little effect. Beltre changed his stance to a closed one and that allowed him to protect the outside of the plate (as I recommended him doing back in May). We saw less flailing away at clear balls out of the zone, and witnessed a late surge of power. Despite those supporting points, he's still not a legit #3, #4 hitter as advertised since he doesn't get on base enough.

21-year old Matt Kemp is a potential All-Star outfielder

Dodgers rookie Matt Kemp is loaded with big time potential in a crowded Dodgers outfield. The 6-2, 230 pound corner outfielder entered his first exposure to Double-A pitching and split his season in the P.C.L. He raked at both levels combining for a .346/.414/.543, 10 homeruns in 381 at bats. Matt hit .253/.289/.448 and 7 homeruns in 154 at bats in his MLB debut with L.A. Those humble numbers are a complete mirage of the player Matt will be as a pro. The way Kemp climbed the ladder this year is truly spectacular. He's one player I would have to have if the M's traded Beltre.

Colletti wants starting pitching, so the chances of a trade is unlikely especially believing we could land a Major League ready arm or top pitching prospect in return. So then why would Seattle trade Adrian? If you believe that Beltre has turned the corner you may undoubtedly frown upon his departure. If you are uncomfortable with Adrian being in the top of the order, then you're going to ask the Dodgers for a bat in return. And if that bat's an outfielder you're going to have to fill that hole at third by trading Jeremy Reed and Sexson to get it with another club.

Do the Dodgers have a Major League ready bat that's better than Beltre? Other than Nomar Garciaparra, or Betemit, there's no veteran bat L.A. would trade away. It's inconceivable that Nomar would be dealt after signing a two-year deal this month to play first base. I wouldn't want Nomar anyways. The Dodgers could use Betemit as trade bait for starting pitching like a Baek. Wilson is a lefty sock that hits for power to right field and is just a notch below Beltre defensively. However, it's just far too complicated of a trade for Bavasi to handle. Beltre returning to the Dodgers is highly unlikely.

Five O'clock Hitter?

2006-11-19T15:40:00.000-08:00

After 15 games at San Antonio, Jeff was rushed to the Triple-A level

"The problem with Clement is not just his numbers, it is that he looked bad at the plate and behind it. His hitting approach was poor as were his receiving skills. I know it is a small sample, but 12 strikeouts and no walks in 46 at-bats is awful.

However, you are right, his playing time was sporadic because he played on a team with four catchers. The biggest complaint I heard about HWB was that there were not enough ABs to go around and it was hard to get into a rhythm.

One scout told me that his BP sessions were still great and he definitey [sic] looks the part of a big league regular. Unfortunately, no one wants to be known as a five o'clock hitter, and that is all he was in Hawaii."-Matt Meyers of Baseball America 11-17-06

Matt Meyers explained to a critic that Jeff’s struggles aren’t just bad numbers in small sample size. The M’s are seriously concerned with Jeff Clement’s performance in Hawaii, he is hitting for a stat line of (.180/.196/.320) and two homeruns in 50 at bats. As earlier reported by Baseball America the M’s sent hitting coach Jeff Pentland, hitting coordinator Alonzo Powell, catching coordinator Roger Hansen, and Director of Player Development Frank Mattox a few days ago to assist Clement in Hawaii.

This is a panic move as the M's now share my private concern for Jeff. If Pentland and staff were in Hawaii to begin with back on October 1, I could accept this as simply routine. Unfortunately in 304 at bats this year, Jeff only managed a (.382) slugging percentage with six homeruns. His bat isn’t as polished as I believed it was coming out of USC. I watched him this season in Tacoma, and came away feeling that Jeff’s catching skills aren’t as poor as some scouts claim they are. However, Jeff looked lost at the plate and struggled just to make contact. Jeff’s rush to Tacoma after only fifteen games in the Texas League was an absurd move by Bavasi. Players should be promoted to a higher level after 200 at bats but only if they have success. That wasn’t the case with Jeff. Look for our top catching prospect to have a better upcoming season in Tacoma.

Jeff Clement USC Scouting video

Bavasi's Crystal Ball

2006-11-18T04:23:00.000-08:00

Bavasi is on record stating the team needs two veteran starters for the rotation and a true #3 hitter. The only real three-hole sluggers are Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee, and there is no way I see Chuck Armstrong spending that kind of cash. At the GM Meetings in Naples, Bavasi stated the Mariners #5 starter would be a player that makes close to the league minimum in salary. He named Baek, Woods, and Feierabend as possible options.

I am going to lay out a few scenarios that Bavasi may seek guidance from his crystal ball. Then I will grade them, and give it a probability rating with a percentage ranging from (0-50) percent.

Option A

1. Woody Williams (D)
2. Tomo Ohka (F)
3. Preston Wilson (F)

Grade: F
Probability: 40%

The Tacoma News Tribune reported Bavasi talked to Woody's agent. Williams turns 39 and is a predominant flyball soft-tossing control pitcher who had success last year in the N.L. but showed clear signs of breaking down. At best, he’s Jamie Moyer and benefits pitching in Safeco. However, he is not as durable as Jamie and has missed over a month’s time on a minor calf injury. So why even trade Moyer last season? More proof that Bavasi has no planning or vision when he makes trades. Preston Wilson is awful versus right-handed pitchers, and still has some power left in his bat, but strikes out too much for his production. Wilson hit the most homeruns (17) in his career since his 2003 campaign. Preston isn't a heart of the order slugger.

Option B

1. Steve Traschel (F)
2. Chan Ho Park (F)
3. Cliff Floyd (F)

Grade: F
Probability: 30%

Comments: Do I really have to explain how bad these signing would turn out? Bavasi’s fascination for washed up veteran players could give us this look on opening day. Floyd is a clubhouse leader and injury prone, two traits that Bavasi covets the most in veteran players.

Option C

1. Mark Redman (F)
2. Kip Wells (F)
3. J.D. Drew (C)

Overall Grade: F
Probability: 20%

Comments: Although there are no documented meetings between the M’s and these players, once Schmidt and Eaton are signed it won’t matter. Bavasi will be under pressure to sign two below average veteran starters because he has no confidence in using more than two young pitchers in the rotation. Drew still has a bad left knee, and the numerous surgeries and injuries will force teams to rest him regularly.

Option D

1. Jason Schmidt (B)
2. Adam Eaton (D)
3. Jeremy Burnitz (F)

Overall Grade: D
Probability: 10%

Comments:

Bottom line, the 34 year-old Schmidt still has a few years left. Despite declining the past two seasons, Jason still is a #2 starter in any league. The only dangerous element to signing Jason is the contract amount and length. The M’s probably could sign him to a $42 million 3 year deal if Jason really yearns to pitch in Seattle. Most likely, the Yankees will pay Schmidt $20 million a year on a longer deal and slap the pin stripes on him. Burnitz's declining bat isn’t a legitimate 3-hole solution. Bavasi may spend most his time trying to sign Schmidt and Eaton and have to settle for the '07 version of Carl Everett in Burnitz.

The Mariners Revolution Philosophy

2006-04-02T17:49:00.000-07:00

"I wholeheartedly believe the foundation of a successful Major League Baseball franchise lies in its unwavering commitment to developing young players from all over the world. Using basic statistical analysis combined with scouting, is the key to proper player evaluations.

What may appear to be an overflowing pool of prospects at one position one day, could become a thin cupboard tomorrow. Teams spend millions of dollars every year on signing bonuses, and contracts for international free agents/rule 4 draft players. Considering the salaries for staff and managers for minor league operations, hundreds of area, associate scouts, and cross checkers. Including the travel expenses and funds for running Latin American academies abroad, developing kids is a vast investment. Therefore, it is absolutely detrimental to the entire farm system to trade away young top prospects for veteran Major League Baseball players past their prime.

The game is bound by limitations of the human element. Prospects can change positions, retire from the game, and have career ending injuries in or outside a baseball diamond. Therefore you can never have too many prospects."-Mariners Revolution